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Giantify

Stocks · Started May 2013

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
16.0%
Max Drawdown
39.3%
Trades
237
Win Trades
82.7%
Profit Factor
13.80
Win Months
62.7%

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20132.3-4.215.4-4.212.03.71.8-0.128.0
2014-4.61.33.10.70.47.90.82.2-0.82.7-0.20.214.2
2015-5.69.3-0.32.5-2.3-2.1-1.4-12.0-3.711.4-2.8-9.6-17.5
2016-8.10.511.33.3-2.9-1.86.61.60.6-2.32.82.814.0
20176.43.6-0.42.71.0-1.84.3-2.78.46.2-0.47.440.0
20188.4-3.6-1.92.53.1-1.12.55.33.1-6.33.0-11.22.2
20196.810.83.03.9-1.03.26.2-2.51.63.55.33.453.4
2020-1.25.0-10.1-3.85.8-1.70.714.0-6.0-4.516.91.814.3
2021-2.410.03.73.20.81.62.0-1.7-1.91.2-2.42.416.9
20221.2-3.52.8-8.51.6-11.69.91.6-12.811.66.8-4.3-8.3
20238.0-5.50.95.1-5.37.54.4-4.00.8-1.17.65.425.1
20242.35.33.5-4.6-3.03.50.07.70.16.7-0.519.3
2025-3.910.8-7.4-9.211.13.41.54.00.41.1-0.21.912.1
20267.1-0.5-7.815.24.41.5-2.40.80.60.219.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began5/4/2013
Suggested Minimum Capital$100,000
Age163 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades237
# Profitable196
% Profitable82.7%
Avg trade duration209.7 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown39.3%
drawdown periodMay 21, 2015 - Jan 20, 2016
Annual Return (Compounded)16.0%
Avg win$3,108
Avg loss$1,218

Ratios

W:L ratio13.82
Sharpe Ratio0.64
Sortino Ratio0.97
Calmar Ratio1.62

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.76
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life383.6%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)252.1%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)16.0%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.2%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)16.0%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity0.9%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$1,218
Avg Win$3,108
# Winners196
Sum Trade PL (losers)$49,940
Sum Trade PL (winners)$609,194
Num Months Winners101
# Losers41
% Winners82.7%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct80868

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table162

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)342035.88
Avg Position Time (hrs)5700.60
Avg Trade Length237.50
Last Trade Ago3813

Regression

Alpha0.01
Beta1.04
Treynor Index0.04

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.01
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades0.45
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-4.59
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats97.35
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats29.97
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.28
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.63
Hold-and-Hope Ratio2.78

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.46
SD0.33
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.39
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.37
df50
t2.87
p0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.40
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.38
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.38
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.36
Sortino ratio3.26
Upside Potential Ratio4.76
Upside part of mean0.67
Downside part of mean-0.21
Upside SD0.32
Downside SD0.14
N nonnegative terms34
N negative terms17
N of observations51
Mean of predictor0.35
Mean of criterion0.46
SD of predictor0.24
SD of criterion0.33
Covariance0.07
r0.85
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.17
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.05
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error49
t(b)11.47
p(b)0
t(a)0.59
p(a)0.28
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.97
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.38
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.24
Treynor index (mean / b)0.39
Jensen alpha (a)0.05
Mean0.40
SD0.31
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.28
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.26
df50
t2.65
p0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.29
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.26
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.28
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.25
Sortino ratio2.68
Upside Potential Ratio4.16
Upside part of mean0.62
Downside part of mean-0.22
Upside SD0.30
Downside SD0.15
N nonnegative terms34
N negative terms17
N of observations51
Mean of predictor0.31
Mean of criterion0.40
SD of predictor0.23
SD of criterion0.31
Covariance0.06
r0.87
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.18
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.03
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error49
t(b)12.07
p(b)0
t(a)0.38
p(a)0.35
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.98
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.37
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.20
Treynor index (mean / b)0.34
Jensen alpha (a)0.03
VaR(95%)0.11
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.14
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.07
Mean0.50
SD0.36
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.39
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.39
df1129
t2.89
p0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.45
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.34
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.45
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.34
Sortino ratio2.26
Upside Potential Ratio8.72
Upside part of mean1.93
Downside part of mean-1.43
Upside SD0.28
Downside SD0.22
N nonnegative terms602
N negative terms528
N of observations1130
Mean of predictor0.37
Mean of criterion0.50
SD of predictor0.25
SD of criterion0.36
Covariance0.07
r0.78
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.11
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.09
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error1128
t(b)42.31
p(b)0.11
t(a)0.85
p(a)0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.16
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.30
Treynor index (mean / b)0.45
Jensen alpha (a)0.09
Mean0.44
SD0.35
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.23
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.23
df1129
t2.55
p0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.28
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.17
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.28
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.17
Sortino ratio1.91
Upside Potential Ratio8.29
Upside part of mean1.89
Downside part of mean-1.46
Upside SD0.27
Downside SD0.23
N nonnegative terms602
N negative terms528
N of observations1130
Mean of predictor0.34
Mean of criterion0.44
SD of predictor0.25
SD of criterion0.35
Covariance0.07
r0.78
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.09
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.07
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error1128
t(b)42.18
p(b)0.11
t(a)0.64
p(a)0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.15
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.14
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.28
Treynor index (mean / b)0.40
Jensen alpha (a)0.07
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
Mean1.33
SD0.68
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.96
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.95
df130
t1.39
p0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.82
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.74
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.83
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.73
Sortino ratio3.42
Upside Potential Ratio11.35
Upside part of mean4.44
Downside part of mean-3.10
Upside SD0.56
Downside SD0.39
N nonnegative terms69
N negative terms62
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.16
Mean of criterion1.33
SD of predictor0.52
SD of criterion0.68
Covariance0.30
r0.86
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.12
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.03
Mean Square Error0.12
DF error129
t(b)18.79
p(b)0.03
t(a)0.05
p(a)0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.24
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.97
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.02
Treynor index (mean / b)1.19
Jensen alpha (a)0.03
Mean1.11
SD0.67
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.67
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.66
df130
t1.18
p0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.44
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.12
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.44
Sortino ratio2.74
Upside Potential Ratio10.62
Upside part of mean4.29
Downside part of mean-3.18
Upside SD0.53
Downside SD0.40
N nonnegative terms69
N negative terms62
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.03
Mean of criterion1.11
SD of predictor0.52
SD of criterion0.67
Covariance0.29
r0.85
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.10
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0.12
DF error129
t(b)18.69
p(b)0.03
t(a)-0.05
p(a)0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.99
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.22
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.00
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.95
Treynor index (mean / b)1.01
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.06
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.08
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations51
Minimum0.83
Quartile 10.99
Median1.02
Quartile 31.10
Maximum1.28
Mean of quarter 10.94
Mean of quarter 21.01
Mean of quarter 31.05
Mean of quarter 41.17
Inter Quartile Range0.11
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.04
Mean of outliers high1.28
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.28
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.09
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.03
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.08
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.12
Number of observations1130
Minimum0.88
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.21
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.03
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low70
Percentage of outliers low0.06
Mean of outliers low0.96
Number of outliers high85
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high1.05
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.38
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.03
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.28
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.03
Number of observations131
Minimum0.90
Quartile 10.98
Median1.00
Quartile 31.02
Maximum1.21
Mean of quarter 10.96
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.06
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low4
Percentage of outliers low0.03
Mean of outliers low0.91
Number of outliers high5
Percentage of outliers high0.04
Mean of outliers high1.13
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.01
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.05
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.43
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.05

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations7
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.01
Median0.04
Quartile 30.12
Maximum0.30
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.03
Mean of quarter 30.08
Mean of quarter 40.23
Inter Quartile Range0.11
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.14
Mean of outliers high0.30
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations86
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.04
Maximum0.36
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.10
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high8
Percentage of outliers high0.09
Mean of outliers high0.18
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.51
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.11
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.25
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.45
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.10
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.19
Number of observations17
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.04
Quartile 30.05
Maximum0.23
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.03
Mean of quarter 30.05
Mean of quarter 40.14
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.12
Mean of outliers high0.20
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.13
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.12
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.16
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.29
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.18
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.32
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-497587520
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)244
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.2%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)1.23
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.54
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.79
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs2.30
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal3.80
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)1.48
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.59
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.62
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs5.91
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal13.87
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)1.53
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)2.12
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)9.08
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs15.64
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal27.40

Trading record

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
CL long215Dec 30, 2015Apr 12, 2016$858
CVS long100Dec 28, 2015Apr 12, 2016$279
OSTK long450Jul 21, 2015Jan 20, 2016($5,586)
AAPL long153Jun 2, 2015Jan 20, 2016($4,286)
LVS long340Jul 8, 2015Jan 8, 2016($4,973)
MCO long50Jul 21, 2015Dec 28, 2015($658)
BAC long500Dec 2, 2015Dec 28, 2015($340)
GS long65Jun 18, 2015Dec 28, 2015($2,041)
MS long300Aug 7, 2015Dec 28, 2015($1,265)
BAX long50Dec 8, 2015Dec 28, 2015$25
WFC long250Aug 6, 2015Dec 1, 2015($6)
BAC long680Jul 27, 2015Dec 1, 2015($210)
MGM long300Oct 20, 2015Nov 12, 2015$594
SINA long50Oct 21, 2015Nov 12, 2015$90
GOOGL long5Aug 13, 2015Oct 20, 2015$43
WIRE long100Aug 17, 2015Oct 16, 2015$448
AKAM long454Jun 1, 2015Aug 7, 2015$582
MS long200Jul 21, 2015Jul 23, 2015$150
BAC long775Jun 18, 2015Jul 22, 2015$504
WFC long385Jun 18, 2015Jul 21, 2015$289
LVS long100Jun 17, 2015Jul 2, 2015$213
OSTK long580Jun 12, 2015Jun 29, 2015$214
MS long150Jun 15, 2015Jun 24, 2015$110
MCO long170May 22, 2015Jun 22, 2015$257
BAX long195May 21, 2015Jun 15, 2015$129
WFC long205May 29, 2015Jun 11, 2015$204
GS long35Jun 2, 2015Jun 11, 2015$182
OSTK long711May 22, 2015Jun 10, 2015$266
MS long400May 21, 2015Jun 4, 2015$133
CMG long15May 19, 2015May 26, 2015($192)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.